The Big Picture

I must beg to disagree. Stock market declines do not result in setbacks for economies necessarily. The killer is bank exposure to the stock market. Once banks fail, the economy quickly is dragged down. That’s what happened in the Great Crash of 1929. In addition, it occurred in East Asia. The worst sufferer was Indonesia, where in fact the IMF mandated closure of bankrupt banks caused an enormous fall in GDP.

In India, the RBI’s prudence is a great life-saver. Stringent restrictions on bank or investment company exposure to stock marketplaces (and real estate) are one big reason the vagaries of the stock market have not meant banks heading under (except when banking institutions, cooperative banks especially, wanted to flout regulations). In the present situation, many finance institutions have been a stricken by the nagging problems in the subprime mortgages market but not commercial banking institutions.

Institutions have been trying to sell their holdings of securities linked to such mortgages and have otherwise used huge hits. The liquidity problems at hedge money and investment banks spells dog days for international financial marketplaces. But commercial banks are relatively unsigned, so the US economy will not face a crisis. The world economy is not affected by US-specific factors and global economic growth will continue to be strong hence.

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